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2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season LTWC Forecast
Overview This page was created to archive the LckyTUBA Weather Center's predictions for the actual 2019 Atlantic hurricane season. The forecasts were all written by LckyTUBA. Forecast #1 (February 27, 2019) On February 27, 2019, the LTWC released its first seasonal forecast predicting a slightly below-average season featuring 10-13 named storms, 4-7 hurricanes and 2-3 major hurricanes for 2019, due to anticipated El Niño conditions during the season. Forecast #2 (March 26, 2019) On March 26, 2019, the LTWC updated its forecast from the previous month. The center predicted 10-12 named storms, 4-6 hurricanes and 2-3 major hurricanes. Forecast #3 (April 5, 2019) On April 5, 2019, the LTWC updated its previous forecast. The center predicted 10-13 named storms, 5-6 hurricanes and 2-3 major hurricanes. Forecast #4 (April 22, 2019) On April 22, 2019, the LTWC released its fourth forecast. The center predicted a near average season with 11-14 named storms, 5-7 hurricanes and 2-3 major hurricanes. The center's rationale behind increasing the numbers was the fact that models showed a weakening trend in the El Niño during the latter half of the season. Forecast #5 (May 8, 2019) On May 8, 2019, the LTWC released its fifth forecast. The center predicted a near average season with 11-15 named storms, 5-8 hurricanes and 2-3 major hurricanes. The center increased the numbers because the El Niño was expected to dissipate during the season. Forecast #6 (May 22, 2019) On May 22, 2019, the LTWC released its sixth forecast. The center predicted a slightly above average season with 12-15 named storms, 5-8 hurricanes and 2-3 major hurricanes. The center increased the numbers because El Nino conditions were rapidly dissipating as the season approached. The center noted the formation of Andrea in the updated figures. Forecast #7 (June 12, 2019) On June 12, 2019, the LTWC released a forecast predicting a slightly above average season with 12-16 named storms, 6-8 hurricanes and 2-3 major hurricanes. The center increased the numbers because El Nino conditions were rapidly dissipating during the start of the season. Forecast #8 (July 12, 2019) On July 12, 2019, the LTWC released a forecast predicting a slightly above average season with 13-16 named storms, 6-8 hurricanes and 2-4 major hurricanes. The center increased the numbers to account for changes in SST outlooks as well as the formation of Barry. Forecast #9 (July 24, 2019) On July 24, 2019, the LTWC released a forecast predicting a slightly above average season with 13-16 named storms, 6-8 hurricanes and 2-4 major hurricanes. The center did not change the numbers from the previous forecast. Forecast #10 (September 11, 2019) On September 11, 2019, the LTWC released a forecast predicting a slightly above average season with 13-17 named storms, 5-7 hurricanes and 2-4 major hurricanes. The center noted that many of the tropical cyclones had been weak, and that only 3-5 more hurricanes would be likely to form during the latter half of the season. Forecast #11 (September 23, 2019) On September 23, 2019, the LTWC released a forecast predicting an above average season with 15-18 named storms, 5-8 hurricanes and 3-4 major hurricanes. The center increased the numbers due to an anticipated MJO pulse that would likely increase activity. Forecast #12 (October 7, 2019) On October 7, 2019, the LTWC released its final forecast for the season, predicting an overall above average season with 13-16 named storms, 5-7 hurricanes and 3-4 major hurricanes. The center decreased the numbers for named storms and hurricanes slightly due to the MJO pulse passing without a large number of cyclones forming, while it kept the numbers for major hurricanes the same.Category:Atlantic hurricane seasons Category:LckyTUBA Weather Center Category:LckyTUBA